6月7日，由紫荆文化集团主办、集友银行联合主办的“‘一带一路’十年成果和愿景——紫荆文化论坛”在香港君悦酒店举行。论坛共邀请了来自印度尼西亚、英国、美国、哈萨克斯坦、阿联酋、马来西亚、塞尔维亚和中国香港等地的16位国际知名专家学者、政商领袖亲临现场，回顾总结“一带一路”十周年的成就和经验，为“一带一路”的发展提出建议。全球化智库高级研究员龙安志出席并发表英文致辞，致辞全文中英文如下：

“一带一路”构筑全球新范式

“一带一路”是在人类命运共同体的总体价值观下，通过金融和生态文明发展基础设施的一项重要政策。新的大趋势正在形成，不久后将会成为一种新的全球范式。 “一带一路”将会为世界上最不发达的一些地区带来经济利益，从而促进世界的可持续发展与安全。

中国作为从不发达国家发展起来的代表国，正在引领改变传统发展模式的前进道路。中国的角色从追随者快速转变为领导者。 “一带一路”策略的成功实施将改变中国的国际形象。香港则将在“一带一路”中扮演全球金融中心的关键角色。

“一带一路”不仅有望重新平衡世界经济秩序，也可能重新绘制政治版图。在通过“一带一路”合作实现的全新世界经济秩序之下，中国不会被动接受西方强加的游戏规则，而是成为新规则的缔造者。

从“一带一路”看全球化

在中国，经济学家观察到“一带一路”正在实现“全球化再平衡”。他们认为，传统全球化模式是以沿海地区为重心，使拥有海运通道的国家从中受益。过去的重心导致贫富国家之间差距过大，造成内陆国家发展落后。

中国将重心放在新丝绸之路国家（其中包括绝大部分“一带一路”国家），注重发展内陆沿线，打通自古丝绸之路时代起未曾启用的新通道。然而，重大区别在于古丝绸之路是一条贸易路线。在“一带一路”政策下，经济走廊或“带”不仅仅是一条贸易路线，而是整个经济发展区。

传统的全球化始于欧洲，却因美国跨国公司而瓦解。全球化原则构成了当今的国际秩序，而这个秩序在意识形态上以西方为中心，且多以理论为基础。

在过去，众人皆认为东方应该追随西方的脚步前进。农民放弃农耕转而进入城市，成为消费者。内陆地区效仿沿海地区的模式发展。但这种方法造成的后果是发展不均衡，且无法有效解决贫困问题，原因在于其本质上创造了不平等和不平衡。

过去三十年的全球化使发达国家得以专注于金融市场及互联网证券交易，改变了国际经济版图的结构。美国全部金融财富的约80%来自于套利，即债务交易，而非来自实际贸易、投资和服务。美国城市不具备真正的生产或生产力，中国不打算采用这种模式，而是基于对基础设施、制造、加工、贸易和服务产业的实际投资，建立“一带一路”模式。

此外，“一带一路”提供的新方法是首先发展内陆，以“一带一路”建立的新内陆基础设施连接内陆城市和地区矩阵，带动西亚和中亚连同蒙古等国家和俄罗斯中西部地区发展。

其战略愿景为，基础设施加上经济发展走廊构成的矩阵（“路”与“带”）将通过经济发展带来政治稳定。社会稳定对于“一带一路”的成功至关重要。

因此，为确保当地发展，“一带一路”项目必须对当地条件、文化和环境保持敏感。保证必要的稳定，是“一带一路”取得成功的必备条件。两者相辅相成。这正是中国经济学家认为“一带一路”是“包容性”的全球化新方法，而非他们眼中具有“排他性”的西方旧方法的原因所在。 “一带一路”是为了重新平衡发展，提倡一种具有包容性，而非排他性的新全球化模式。

“一带一路”令参与国家受益

“一带一路”的影响力规模前所未见。截至 2023 年 1 月，已有 151 个国家加入了“一带一路”倡议。参与国包括近75%的世界人口，占世界GDP的一半以上。

中国力求通过铁路、公路、贸易、货币流通、政策沟通、文化交流的互联互通过程，在实际项目合作的基础上建立信任关系，促进“一带一路”国家和地区的安全。此外，经历共同的发展过程，人们才能享受经济发展的好处。平衡发展将拓展教育和商业机遇的范围。心怀希望，人们将寻求建立和加强制度，而非反抗制度。

中国正在基于自身经验以及“一带一路”合作国家的需求创新经济发展方式。中国将提供自身的制造能力、技术能力、项目管理经验及资金，帮助其他国家摆脱欠发达境地。这种模式是基于商业合作，而非单纯的援助。融资将成为该政策整体部署的关键，而香港将成为全球融资的关键。

“一带一路”如何获得资金？

“一带一路”策略的关键是通过提供融资来恰当利用中国对外提供基础设施、电信、制造及资源的能力。挑战在于如何建立能够充分满足发展中国家需求的金融架构。自第二次世界大战以来，发展中国家的现有金融架构一直是围绕世界银行及国际货币基金组织构建，并得到诸如美国国际开发署（华盛顿）、国际发展部（伦敦）或国际发展合作机构（瑞典）等援助机构的支持。

因此，发展中国家为关键基础设施与能源项目获取财务支持的政策和流程受制于一些条件，而这些条件往往是基于西方发达国家领导人的价值观和所认为的需求，而无法反映欠发达国家人民的需求。

中国希望通过“一带一路”来改变这一局面。中国自身也经历过发展的痛苦，对于摆脱贫困、步入发展轨道所需的条件有著清楚认知。其核心在于“循序渐进”的过程，该术语是指发展的基石。例如，在告知人们应当拥有投票权之前，首先需要为其家中通电，这样他们才能阅读所要投票的内容。这可能听起来可笑，但这正是问题和挑战所在。

因此，如果没有建立发展的基础，人民也无法向上发展。所有发展的动力来自于愿意贷款和投资的金融机构。发展中国家需要新型金融机构，这些新型金融机构能够敏锐感知摆脱不发达困境的人们的实际需求。

许多欠发达国家对西方多边援助和发展机构采取的政策感到失望。因此，他们欢迎中国支持建立新的多边开发银行的想法。虽然中国将率先成为这些新金融机构的捐助者，但印度和俄罗斯等其他发展中国家也是其中的创始成员和捐助者。因此，这些多边发展银行的借贷和担保政策将遵循从这些国家的经验中得出的实际需求。

至今为止，“一带一路”框架内已成立三家重要多边开发银行和一只中国专项援助基金。其中包括亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)；新开发银行（前称金砖国家开发银行）；丝路基金（非多边机构，完全由中国出资和管理）；和上海合作组织基金。每家机构均按计划在“一带一路”整体策略中起到特定作用。然而，香港作为中国的国际融资中心将发挥至关重要的作用，成为所有这些机构的纽带。

人民币国际化

至少对参与“一带一路”的国家来说，将人民币国际化作为下一个全球储备货币，是中国扩大全球影响力的一个合乎逻辑的措施，也是“一带一路”的核心战略。长期以来，中国一直对美国在全球金融体系中的主导地位保持警惕。鉴于全球社会的权力转移，人们不应该对中国正在创建一个属于自己的全球金融体系感到意外。 “一带一路”正是实施这一体系的战略，但这并非一蹴而就。自1997年亚洲金融危机以来，中国一直在寻求扩大自身货币政策影响力的手段，以此来降低与全球货币和市场波动相关的风险。中国和其他发展中国家对2008年金融危机和危机后管理的担忧，在很大程度上影响了成立亚洲基础设施投资银行和开发银行作为“一带一路”国家新的多边开发银行的想法。

这些机构的创立也反映出，尽管中国对国际货币基金组织和世界银行都做出巨额资金承诺，但中国在这两个组织内部仍未能获得更大的政策影响力，因此倍感受挫。地缘政治利益限制了中国的影响力，也限制了中国进入发达国家决策俱乐部的机会。那么，为什么不单枪匹马，创建新的多边开发银行，并通过发展中国家俱乐部建立新的金融架构呢？

自1997年亚洲金融危机以来，中国一直对亚洲经济体面临全球货币和市场波动中的整体风险感到担忧。中国很早就认识到，美元作为全球储备货币，即使不能控制全球金融，也会给美国带来巨大优势，因此中国一直梦想发展自己的金融架构。

这一进程始于2008年全球金融危机期间的清迈倡议。当时，中国与其他亚洲国家共同建立了一个货币稳定基金。中国是该基金的主要捐赠国。参与该基金的亚洲国家很清楚，中国准备带头建立亚洲抵御全球市场波动的能力。

建立以亚洲为中心，并由亚洲融资的多边开发银行的想法的快速推进，为通过开发银行、亚洲基础设施投资银行和丝路基金等机构建立平行的全球金融架构提供了手段和机会。问题是，下一个全球储备货币将是什么，人民币有朝一日能在“一带一路”愿景的整体范围内发挥这一作用吗？

国际货币基金组织或世界银行对欠发达或封闭经济体的标准建议是立即放开外汇交易，这带来了中国不愿承担的风险。相反，中国采取邓小平所说“摸著石头过河”的循序渐进方法，十分缓慢但有效地推进人民币国际化进程。人民币将越来越多地用于“一带一路”国家的跨境交易，其影响力也将日益强大，直至成为“一带一路”储备货币。香港作为中国的国际金融和银行中心、“一带一路”的融资纽带，在未来将发挥比过往更为重要的作用。

Belt and Road as a New Global Paradigm

The Belt and Road is an overarching policy for developing infrastructure through finance and ecological civilization under the overarching value of a common shared destiny of mankind. It is creating a new mega-trend that will soon become a new global paradigm. The Belt and Road as a process will promote sustainability and security in the world by bringing economic benefits to some of the most underdeveloped regions of the world.

China as a nation stands as a symbol of what was once an underdeveloped nation, developing, and now leading the way in changing traditional views of development models. China’s role is rapidly changing from follower to leader. The successful implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative will transform China’s image globally. Hong Kong will play a key role as global financial center for the Belt and Road.

The Belt and Road has the potential to not only re-balance the world economic order but re-draw the political map as well. In the new world economic order arising through Belt and Road cooperation, China will not be the passive recipient of rules of the game forced on it by the west, but rather China will be the creator of new rules.

The Belt and Road View of Globalization

Within China, economists observe that the Belt and Road is realizing a “globalization rebalance.” They consider the traditional globalization approach as one that is focused on coastal regions benefitting those nations with ocean shipping access. This past focus has created a huge gap between rich and poor nations, leaving the inland countries behind in development.

China’s emphasis on the new Silk Road nations that comprise a large portion of the Belt and Road will give development focus to inland routes offering new access not enjoyed since the time of the old Silk Road. However, the big difference is that the old Silk Road was a trade route. Under Belt and Road policies the economic corridor or “belt” will not only be a route for trade but an entire zone of economic development.

Traditional globalization started from Europe, but imploded with the USA multinational corporations. The principles of globalization formed the international order of the day that was west-centered ideologically and very much based on theory.

The expectation was that the East would follow the West. Farmers would abandon agriculture for the cities and become consumers. Inland development would follow coastal regions. But this approach resulted in unequal growth and proved ineffective in resolving poverty issues because by nature it created inequality and imbalance.

The past 30 years globalization changed the structure of international economic map by having the developed nations focus on financial markets and the trading of Internet securities. Some eighty percent of all financial wealth in America comes from arbitrage, the trading of debt, rather than from actual trade, investment and services. America’s cities are empty of any real production or productivity China intends not to adopt this model but rather to build the Belt and Road model based on hard investments into infrastructure, manufacturing, processing, trade and services.

Moreover, the new approach offered by Belt and Road is to develop the interior first, to allow western and Central Asia together with countries like Mongolia and regions of central and western Russia to develop along with a matrix of inland cities and regions connected by the new inland infrastructure that Belt and Road is establishing.

The strategic vision is that this matrix of infrastructure accompanied by development corridors (the road + belt) will offer political stability through development. Social stability is important to the success of The Belt and Road.

Consequently, Belt and Road projects must be sensitive to local conditions, culture, and environment to assure local development. This is necessary to guarantee that very stability required for Belt and Road to become a success. The two go hand in hand. That is why Chinese economists consider Belt and Road to be a fresh approach to globalization that is “inclusive” rather than the old western approach, which they view as “exclusive.” Belt and Road is all about rebalancing development, to put forward a new kind of globalization that is inclusive rather than exclusive.

Belt and Road Benefiting Participating Countries

The scale of Belt and Road OBOR influence is unprecedented. To date, there are 65 nations that have joined the Belt and Road OBOR multi-lateral process as partners. As of January 2023, 151 countries were listed as having signed up to the BRI. The participating countries include almost 75% of the world's population and account for more than half of the world's GDP.

China seeks to forge security in Belt and Road countries and regions through a process of connectivity involving: rail, road, trade, currency circulation, policy communication, cultural exchange in building trust based on practical project cooperation. Moreover, it is through the process of shared development that people will access the benefits of economic growth. Balanced development will widen the scope of education and business opportunities. With hope, people will seek to build and strengthen systems rather than revolt against them.

China is innovating a new approach to economic development based on its own experiences, and the needs of the countries that are Belt and Road partners. China will offer its manufacturing capacity, technology capability, project management experience, and hard finance to help other countries come out from underdevelopment. The model is based on business cooperation rather than just aid. Financing will be key to the entire rollout of this policy. Hong Kong will be key to global financing.

How will One Belt One Road be Funded?

Key to the Belt and Road Initiative is matching China’s infrastructure, telecommunications, manufacturing and resource extrapolation through finance. The challenge is how to build a sufficient financial architecture that can meet the demands of developing nations. Since World War II the existing financial architecture for developing nations has been built around the World Bank and IMF, supported by aid agencies such as USAID from Washington, DIFID from London, or SIDA from Sweden for example.

Consequently, the policies and processes for developing nations to obtain financial support for key infrastructure and energy projects have been tied to conditions that are often based on the values and perceived needs of leaders in the developed western nations, rather than reflecting the needs of people in underdeveloped nations.

Through Belt and Road, China intends to change exactly this problem. Having been through the pains of development itself, China has a clear understanding of what it takes to pull out of poverty and move on the track to development. Core to this is the process of “sequencing” a term that refers to the building blocks of development. For instance, before you tell people that they should have the right to vote, people may need to first have electricity in their homes so that they can read what they are going to vote for. This may sound funny, but it is exactly the problem and challenge.

So without building the foundations for development, there can be no upward mobility of people. The driver for all development comes from the financial institutions that will lend and invest. China’s view has been that the developing world needs new financial institutions that are sensitive to the practical needs of people coming out from underdevelopment.

Many of the underdeveloped nations are frustrated by the policies that have been imposed by western multilateral aid and development agencies. Consequently, they welcome the idea that China is supporting the establishment of new multilateral development banks. While China will take the lead as donor to these new financial institutions, other developing nations such as India and Russia are also founding members and donors. Consequently, the lending and guarantee policies of these multilateral development banks will adhere to the practical needs drawn from experience of these countries.

To date, there are three key multilateral development banks and one dedicated China support fund that have been established within the Belt and Road framework. These include the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank (AIIB); the New Development Bank (formerly referred to as the BRICS Development Bank); the Silk Road Fund (not a multilateral institution as it is entirely China funded and managed); and the Shanghai Cooperation Group Fund. Each institution and the designated role that it is intended to play in the overall Belt and Road Initiative. However, Hong Kong as China’s international financing center will have the most important role to play as a nexus for all of these institutions.

Internationalization of the Yuan Currency

It is a logic step in China’s increasing global presence and a core initiative of Belt and Road to integrate an internationalization of the Yuan as the next global reserve currency, at least for the nations participating in Belt and Road. China has long been wary of America’s dominance in the global financial system. Given the power shifts in the global community one should not be surprised that China is creating a global financial system of its own. Belt and Road is the initiative for implementing such a system.

It did not happen overnight. Since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, China has sought means to expand the influence of its own monetary policy as a method of reducing risk associated with global currency and market fluctuations. The idea of creating AIIB and the Development Bank as new multilateral development banks for Belt and Road countries were greatly influenced by the concerns of China and other developing nations over the 2008 financial crisis and post crisis management.

The creation of these institutions also reflects China’s frustration in the lack of gaining greater policy influence within the IMF and World Bank despite its large financial commitments to both organizations. Geo-political interests have limited China’s influence and entry into the policy making club of developed nations. So why not go it alone and create new multi-lateral development banks and establish a new financial architecture through a club of the developing nations.

Since the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, China has been deeply concerned with the overall exposure of Asian economies to global currency and market volatility. Recognizing early on that the US Dollar as global reserve currency, gives the United States an overarching advantage if not control over global finance, China has had the long-held dream of evolving its own financial architecture.

This process began with the Chiang Mai Initiative during the 2008 global financial crisis when China together with other Asian nations established a currency stabilization fund. China was the main donor to the fund. It was clear to the Asian nations participating that China was prepared to take the lead in building Asian resilience to the volatility of global markets.

Fast forwarding, the idea of establishing Asian-based and financed multi-lateral development banks offered a means and opportunity of establishing a parallel global financial architecture through institutions such as the Development Bank, AIIB and the Silk Road Fund. The question is, what will be the next second global reserve currency, and can the Yuan serve this purpose one day within the overall scope of the Belt and Road Belt and Road vision?

The standard IMF or World Bank advice to an underdeveloped or closed economy has been to immediately liberalize foreign exchange trading. This carries risks that China was not willing to undertake. Instead, adopting the step-by-step approach in Deng’s adage about crossing rivers while carefully seeking the stones for the next steps China has adopted a very gradual yet effective sequencing toward internationalization of the Yuan currency. The Yuan will increasingly be used in cross border transactions in Belt and Road countries, until its influence becomes so strong that the Yuan becomes a Belt and Road reserve currency. Hong Kong as China’s international financial and banking center as nexus for financing the Belt and Role will have a more important role to play in the future than any role it has played in its past.