【中文版】回首过去 向往未来：“一带一路”的十年

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an ambitious project launched by China in 2013 with the aim of enhancing economic and infrastructural connectivity among countries along the old Silk Road. Over the past decade, the BRI has become one of the most significant development initiatives in the world, with more than 140 countries and international organizations joining the project. BRI has enabled China to expand its global outreach and established itself as a powerful tool in promoting a new form of multilateralism in the international system. Therefore, this article provides an overview of the BRI's development and accomplishments in the past decade, with a specific focus on its impact on Europe and Serbia. Additionally, some suggestions to improve BRI's operations and effectiveness are provided. The paper discusses some challenges that the BRI faces, given the relocation of global security affairs and strategic orientation of the USA (and China) towards the Indo-Pacific region, as well as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and other similar phenomena.

Author: Dr. Nenad Stekić

Regional Centre "Belt and Road"

Institute of International Politics and Economics, Belgrade, Serbia

BRI's Decade of Development and Accomplishments

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a long-term project, and its full impact is yet to be realized. However, it has already achieved significant results in various sectors, including infrastructure, trade, and investment. In Europe, BRI has been instrumental in improving connectivity, with the development of the China-Europe Railway Express, which has connected more than 60 Chinese cities to 50 European cities, reducing transportation time by two-thirds. The BRI has also facilitated investments in European countries, with Chinese companies investing in various sectors such as energy, technology, and tourism. Additionally, BRI has facilitated investments in various sectors, including agriculture, energy, and telecommunications. Moreover, the BRI has also contributed to improving cultural and people-to-people exchanges. For instance, China has launched several initiatives to enhance cultural exchanges with Europe, including the "China-EU Culture Year" and the "China-CEEC Cultural Cooperation Fund".

BRI has been a significant contributor to China's opening to global affairs in various fields. Over the past decade, the BRI has enabled China to expand its economic, political, and security ties with countries across Asia, Europe, and Africa. Economically, the BRI has provided a platform for China to deepen its integration with the global and especially European economy. By building infrastructure, facilitating trade and investment, and promoting economic cooperation, the BRI has helped China to expand its economic influence in the Eurasian region and beyond. Through the BRI, China has also become a leading player in global trade and investment, especially in developing countries. Politically, the BRI has provided China with an opportunity to enhance its soft power and increase its global political influence and prestige. By promoting mutual development and cooperation, China has been able to build stronger diplomatic ties with participating countries. China's investment in infrastructure and development projects has also been seen as a way to improve its image and promote its model of development. In terms of security, the BRI has contributed to China's strategic goals by enhancing its regional security and stability. By investing in infrastructure and promoting economic development, the BRI has helped to create more stable and secure environments in participating countries. 

Global challenges for the BRI - a new multilateralism led by China and relocation of global security affairs

China has been diversifying its partnerships and investments, seeking to expand its economic and political influence beyond its traditional sphere of influence and to enhance its strategic resilience. However, the Coronavirus pandemic has slowed down the potential that the BRI could have achieved in its absence. China has been strengthening its relations with Russia, seeking to deepen their strategic partnership and align their interests on global issues. It has also been increasing its engagement with other regions, such as Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa, seeking to tap into new markets and resources. 

One of the major challenges facing the BRI is the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine which has strained Russia's relations with the West and heightened geopolitical tensions in the wider Eurasian region. This has impacted the BRI, as some countries, particularly in Europe, have become more wary of China's increasing economic and political influence, fearing that it could undermine their sovereignty and security. As a result, some have been reluctant to participate in the BRI, and others have sought to impose more stringent conditions and safeguards to ensure their interests are protected. Another challenge is the rising significance of the Indo-Pacific region and Western attempts to contain China's influence in the area. The United States, in particular, has been pursuing a strategy of geopolitical containment against China, seeking to limit its influence and expansion in the region. The US has formed strategic alliances with countries in the region, including India, Japan, and Australia, and has increased its military presence in the area. This has created an environment of heightened strategic competition and uncertainty and promotion of the Indo-Pacific region, making it more challenging for China to pursue its economic and political goals. Such situation poses a great challenge to China's BRI outlook as the official Beijing would concentrate its strategic capacities towards its nearest geographic surroundings instead of stretching across the globe. Further, the BRI is not immune to other challenges. One of the major obstacles it faces is the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has strained Russia's relations with the West and heightened geopolitical tensions in the broader Eurasian region. It has promoted China as a potential mediator between Russian Federation and Ukraine in March 2023, and offered its wholehearted support in Ukraine's post-conflict reconstruction. This will for sure be facilitated under the scope of the BRI. Notwithstanding, China has developed a new form of multilateralism through the BRICS format, grounded in its five principles of mutual coexistence proclaimed over 70 years ago. This approach aims to counterbalance the influence of the US dollar as a global currency with the support of Argentina and Brazil. Additionally, China has achieved a notable diplomatic victory in the Persian Gulf through successful negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. These factors significantly contribute to the evolution of the BRI, with connectivity as the main driving variable for cooperation between China and other parts of the world. 

Unpacking BRI's Local Element: Serbia's Success Story

Serbia has emerged as a key player in China's cooperation with the countries of South-Eastern Europe, earning the moniker of a "little champion"when it comes to cooperation with China. The Sino-Serbian relationship has remained strong since the establishment of the People's Republic of China, with a history of traditionally positive bilateral ties. In 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative provided the Republic of Serbia with a favorable framework for its multi-vector foreign policy. This approach to foreign policy was first established in 2009 by then-president Boris Tadic, who identified China, Russia, the European Union (EU), and the United States as the four pillars of Serbia's international relations. This foreign policy doctrine has persisted over time and remains relevant in Serbia's contemporary foreign policy.

In Serbia, the BRI has been a game-changer, as it has facilitated infrastructure development, which has been a significant challenge for the country. One of the significant BRI projects in Serbia is the Belgrade-Budapest High-Speed Rail project, which will connect the capital cities of Serbia and Hungary, reducing travel time from eight hours to three hours. Additionally, BRI has facilitated investments in various sectors, including agriculture, energy, and telecommunications. In Serbia, two Confucius Institutes have been established – one in the capital city of Belgrade as well as one in its second biggest city – Novi Sad to promote Chinese language and culture, while the new China Cultural Center in Belgrade has become a popular venue for cultural events and is among the biggest globally. The BRI has facilitated several major infrastructural projects between the two sides, including the Pupin Bridge, the Belgrade Novi Sad high-speed railway, various segments of the "Miloš Veliki" highway, the Belgrade bypass, the Novi Sad Ruma high-speed road, the Valjevo-Lajkovac high-speed road, the Belgrade Metro, thermal power plants Kostolac B3 and Pancevo, and many others. The entry of Chinese companies into Serbia's heavy industries, particularly mining, has enabled Serbia's exports to China to increase significantly from around 20 million USD in 2018 to an impressive 1.2 billion in 2022, while the Chinese exports to Serbia stood to 5 billion in 2022.

As an expert in Chinese foreign and security policy, the BRI also marked a turning point in my personal career. Through this initiative and people-to-people mobility, I was able to visit the PR China several times and participate in important symposia and conferences in various Chinese cities. Despite the setbacks caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, my professional contacts with Chinese colleagues and our joint research efforts have remained strong. Therefore, I look forward to fly on the newly established direct flights between Belgrade and Beijing (via Hainan Airlines) or Belgrade and Tianjin (via AirSerbia).

Enhancing the Belt and Road Initiative: Suggestions for future improvement

Although BRI has made significant progress in the past decade, there is room for improvement to enhance its effectiveness and address some of the criticisms leveled against it. The BRI has been a game-changer in terms of connectivity, trade, and investment over the past decade. In Serbia and Europe, it has facilitated infrastructure development and investments in various sectors, leading to economic growth and cultural exchanges. Despite these positive outcomes, there are criticisms regarding the lack of environmental standards, transparency, local employment opportunities, and engagement with local communities. BRI should address these issues to enhance its effectiveness and mitigate negative impacts. To address the lack of environmental standards, BRI should include environmental considerations in project development and adhere to international best practices. Similarly, improving transparency and accountability is crucial for any development project. BRI should make project information publicly available, including project contracts, agreements, and environmental impact assessments. Furthermore, BRI should prioritize hiring local workers and ensure the transfer of technology and skills to build local capacity. This would address criticisms that BRI is not creating enough local jobs. Lastly, BRI should engage with local communities and seek their input in the project development process to address criticisms of neglecting local communities and their needs. In addition, Chinese media outlets are currently underrepresented in Europe. It is important to increase their presence to better communicate China's progress and initiatives related to the BRI in this region. In conclusion, the Belt and Road Initiative has brought significant benefits both to Europe and Serbia, and its people. It is why is substantially important to continuously enhance BRI's effectiveness and ensure that it achieves its goals in a sustainable and inclusive manner.

(This article was published in the May 2023 issue of Bauhinia Magazine)